(1)
The first war launched by the United States in the 21st century, the longest war launched by the United States so far, is about to lose.
Of course, Americans will certainly argue: Who said I lost? We signed a peace agreement and left peacefully.
On the surface, it is. After 19 years of bloody war, the United States and the Taliban shook hands and made peace. On the afternoon of February 29th, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Qatar.
A historic agreement.
But in the 19 years of bloody war, as the only superpower in the world, the United States paid the lives of 2,400 young soldiers, resulting in more than 20,000 soldiers being disabled, and the war cost more than 750 billion US dollars. In the end, the Taliban did not collapse, but also controlled most of Afghanistan, and now it is going to make a comeback. On the contrary, the United States will withdraw its troops.
Who won? Who lost?
But the United States is more helpless.
The 19-year war has increasingly proved that Afghanistan is a big quagmire.
Keep fighting, America can’t defeat the Taliban.
Even if there are more advanced drones and more powerful cruise missiles, Americans are at a loss in the face of the Taliban hiding in the mountains.
Advanced weapons have a price, and American soldiers are more expensive, but the Taliban just can’t kill them. On the contrary, they have increased their counterattack against the United States. In the past 2019, dozens of American soldiers were killed, which is the biggest casualty of the United States in Afghanistan for many years.
Not to mention one 19 years, that is, several 19 years, Americans can’t win.
Besides, for Americans, what if they win? Can you send troops to stay in Afghanistan? That’s a sitting duck waiting to die.
The United States has long wanted to withdraw, but it has been unable to withdraw.
Desperately withdraw, where to put your face. Moreover, the Taliban did not give Americans a good face at all.
Originally, in September last year, the United States had held nine rounds of negotiations with the Taliban and could sign a peace agreement immediately.
But in September of that year, the Taliban launched another attack, and another American soldier was killed. This is trampling on the American red line. Trump suddenly became angry: Stop talking!
Americans want to get back more chips that are not on the negotiating table.
The United States is going to fight again, but the Taliban there are even worse: Americans, you must regret it even more.
In the next few months, the two sides fought again. But what makes Americans helpless is that the indiscriminate bombing of the Taliban did not work. On the contrary, the Bagram Air Force Base, the largest military base in Afghanistan, was attacked by the Taliban.
In January this year, although the United States and Iran were at loggerheads, the United States suffered the most, especially in Afghanistan. The Taliban killed many more American soldiers.
Even if you are impulsive and take risks again, Trump should have a set of accounts.
The red line of Americans has become a dotted line, and everything in face is secondary after all. In the end, let’s talk about it.
So, on the last day of February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement.
(2)
For Americans, the lesson is painful.
Originally, there was no suspense in this war. One side is the only superpower in the world, and the other side is just a guerrilla regime. Moreover, at that time, the United States stood at the moral high ground and avenged the September 11 incident. Whoever sheltered bin Laden was the enemy.
The Taliban didn’t understand the situation at the time.
According to the tradition of Afghan tribes, bin Laden and Al Qaeda are their guests, and guests cannot be expelled. So he flatly refused to hand over bin Laden. As a result, the angry Bush administration launched a war against Afghanistan.
It was really devastating at first. In the winter of 2001, the Taliban was expelled from Kabul. However, the United States never imagined that the war had just begun, and it would take 19 years to fight.
Also in 2001, I went to Afghanistan and started my first battlefield career. Among them, it is bitter and sweet, and it is a long story.
American nightmare seems doomed from the beginning. At that time, in Kabul, the city was in the hands of the United States and allied forces, but in the surrounding mountains, it was the Taliban camp.
The fierceness of the mountain people really makes people gasp in admiration. Afghans are proud to tell me,This is the tomb of empires. They have defeated two empires: the British Empire and the Soviet Union, and will definitely defeat the third empire-the United States.
Of course, the Taliban itself has been criticized by the international community, such as extremely conservative religious ideas, especially the imprisonment of women, and the extreme behavior of destroying the Bamiyan Buddha.
But Afghanistan is Afghanistan, and the Taliban is the Taliban. The Taliban has the support of the bottom people and its superior guerrilla warfare ability, which makes the United States have to accept the reality.
After signing the peace agreement, Trump also lamented at the White House:The Taliban is a great warrior, a great warrior. If you don’t believe it, just ask the Soviets …
The United States is clapping its hands to withdraw, but for Afghanistan and the whole pattern of Central Asia, it means a new blood shed.
After all, in Kabul, there is the Afghan regime supported by Americans. How can the Taliban and the Ghani regime get along?
This is reminiscent of the tragedy after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union.
Najibullah was the leader of the Afghan puppet regime supported by the Soviet Union at that time. After the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, the resistance immediately attacked Kabul, and najibullah’s regime collapsed. He himself had to take refuge in the United Nations office.
The resistance was polite at least, but the Taliban, which rose later, was not polite at all.
On September 27th, 1996, Taliban soldiers who invaded Kabul finally found najibullah. According to what people in Kabul told me at that time, the poor former leader was executed in an insulting way. His mouth was stuffed with money, his genitals were cut off, and then he was shot dead at random. After his death, his body was hung on the lamppost in the city square for a long time …
The cruel execution of najibullah also showed the world the horror of the Taliban.
After 19 years, the Taliban will definitely enter Kabul again.
(3)
Finally, don’t say much. Recently, the focus of the world is not Afghanistan. Just like Trump’s press conference, reporters asked several questions about Afghanistan, and more about the spread of Covid-19.
The Americans are going to run away, and the life and death of the Afghans are also neglected by the Americans.
Some regrets:
First, no matter how powerful the empire is, it also has its own weaknesses.
Weapons are very important, but the United States, which has the most advanced weapons in the world, launched a 19-year war and paid 2400 lives, but still failed to defeat the Taliban. In this world, the wicked have their own grinding. Seeing a photo of the Taliban, a westerner commented: They never learn English, but they teach more than 40 countries a lesson!
Second, a war is over, but blood shed is coming.
Just as the Soviet Union withdrew its troops in those years, then the guerrillas captured Kabul, and then there was a more bitter civil war. How does the powerful Taliban divide power with the Kabul regime? What will happen to those Afghans who have worked with Americans? Americans have left a mess and a new blood shed.
Third, the people are the most miserable.
We went to Afghanistan in 2001, when Kabul airport was destroyed, and we landed at Bagram Air Force Base. On the road to Kabul, there is a wilderness full of mines, and there are still the wreckage of destroyed tanks and artillery on the roadside. Seeing the people fleeing in panic, there is really a deep sadness:Better be a peaceful dog than a stray.This is really the cry of the ancients.
We really don’t live in a peaceful world, but we are fortunate to live in a peaceful country.
Although we are now in another war without smoke, at least we have seen the dawn of victory.
Still cherish the present and cherish peace!
